In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie team, Macquarie strategists revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 4.3 million barrels for the week ending April 25.
“This compares to our early look which anticipated a 7.0 million barrel build. On the product side of the ledger, in aggregate, our expectations are little changed,” the strategists noted in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model crude runs slightly lower (-0.1 million barrels per day). Among net imports, we model a moderate increase, with exports (+0.5 million barrels per day) and imports (+1.0 million barrels per day) higher on a nominal basis,” they added.
The strategists warned in the report that timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance.
“From implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers), we look for a small increase (+0.1 million barrels per day). Rounding out the picture, we anticipate a larger increase in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks (+1.0 million barrels) this week,” the strategists went on to state.
“Among products, we look for draws in gasoline (-2.3 million barrels) and distillate (-1.3 million barrels), with a build in jet (+0.5 million barrels). We model implied demand for these three products at 14.0 million barrels per day for the week ending April 25,” they continued.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Thursday, Macquarie strategists outlined that they saw “a large U.S. crude build” in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) next weekly petroleum status report.
That report is scheduled to be released on April 30 and will include data for the week ending April 25. The EIA’s latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing was released on April 23 and includes data for the week ending April 18.
“Looking ahead to next week’s release, we anticipate a large U.S. crude build (+7.0 million barrels), with runs down minimally and net imports increasing again (+0.9 million barrels per day), nominal implied supply up slightly (+0.1 million barrels per day), and a slightly larger increase in SPR inventory (+0.6 million barrels) on the week,” Macquarie strategists said in the report sent to Rigzone last Thursday.
“We note potential for volatility in these figures given the incomplete nature of this week’s data,” they added.
“Among products, our preliminary expectations point to another healthy draw in gasoline (-3.0 million barrels), with distillate stocks nearly flat (-0.1 million barrels), and a jet build (+0.4 million barrels),” they continued.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report, the EIA highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, increased by 0.2 million barrels from the week ending April 11 to the week ending April 18.
This EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 443.1 million barrels on April 18, 442.9 million barrels on April 11, and 453.6 million barrels on April 19, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 397.5 million barrels on April 18, 397.0 million barrels on April 11, and 365.7 million barrels on April 19, 2024, the report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.605 billion barrels on April 18, the report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were down 0.3 million barrels week on week and up 5.9 million barrels year on year, the report outlined.
“At 443.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about five percent below the five year average for this time of year,” the EIA noted in its latest weekly petroleum status report.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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