India’s coal demand could more than double by 2050 from current levels under current policies, a new report by NITI Aayog, the policy think tank of the Indian government, showed on Tuesday.
Under the Current Policy Scenario (CPS), coal demand in India is forecast to rise even through 2070, according to the projections.
In this scenario, long-term demand could more than double to 2.615 billion tons by 2050, up from 1.256 billion tons in 2025, the think tank’s analysis found. If India keeps the current policies, coal demand will be higher even in 2070 compared to 2025 levels.
The share of coal is set to drop from 73% in 2025 to 47% in 2070, thanks to the rise of renewable energy.
This suggests that coal will still be king in India if current policies are kept.
Even in the net-zero scenario (for India, the net-zero goal is 2070), coal demand will rise to 1.827 billion tons by 2050, up from 1.256 billion tons in 2025. But then demand will collapse to only 161 million tons by 2070.
Despite the fact that renewables now dominate new power additions, India needs coal to continue to provide “dependable, cost-effective baseload power, anchoring system reliability as cleaner sources expand,” the government think tank said in the report.
To manage the transition, India needs to scale up rapidly energy storage, flexible generation, and stronger transmission and distribution networks, the report noted.
Despite booming renewable capacity additions, India continues to rely on coal to meet most of its power demand as authorities also look to avoid blackouts in cases of severe heat waves.
Coal will still be a key part of India’s power system for the next two decades, Rajnath Ram, adviser for energy at NITI Aayog, said in September 2025.
“We cannot be subjective about coal. The question is how sustainably we can use it,” the official noted.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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