New Delhi: India’s crude oil imports slipped 23 per cent so far this month compared to the levels seen in February as inflows from the Gulf sharply contracted. If the current trend persists with the Strait of Hormuz staying shut, imports this month could drop about a fifth sequentially, according to shipping data and analysts.
Refiners, scrambling to plug the gap, moved to nearly double purchases from Russia besides sharply boosting imports from smaller African producers such as Angola, Congo, and Gabon. Supplies from Saudi Arabia are also sto rise, with multiple tankers loading at its Red Sea port of Yanbu and heading to India.
India received 81 million barrels of crude in the first 18 days of March, falling from 105 million barrels in the same period last month, said Xavier Tang, senior market analyst at Vortexa. The decline was driven largely by a collapse in Middle East supplies to 22.4 million barrels during March 1-18, from 59.9 million barrels in the same period last month, he added.
With the Iran war intensifying and energy assets increasingly drawn into the conflict, fears of a prolonged supply disruption and price shock are mounting.
“If the Strait of Hormuz disruption continues through March, total monthly volumes are projected at 115-125 million barrels, compared with a typical range of around 150 million barrels,” said Nikhil Dubey, senior refining analyst at Kpler.
Russia supplied 34.3 million barrels-about 44 per cent of India’s total crude imports-in the first 18 days of March, according to Kpler data. Angola ramped up shipments to 7.5 million barrels during this period, from 2.9 million barrels in all of February. Congo, Gabon and Sudan-rare suppliers to India-contributed 1.9 million barrels, 1.7 million barrels, and 700,000 barrels, respectively.
US supplies have also been weak, with about 3 million barrels received so far this month, roughly half of February’s total. From the Gulf, India has imported 7.9 million barrels from Saudi Arabia, 6.8 million barrels from Iraq, and 1.9 million barrels from the UAE so far in March.
Saudi flows are now expected to climb. “We are seeing approximately 15-16 million barrels of crude loading from Saudi Arabia’s west coast to India this month,” said Dubey. “Of this, around 9 million barrels are already enroute and are expected to arrive within the next 6-7 days,” he said, adding some cargoes may spill over into April due to voyage times.
The US has signalled that Iranian oil may soon return to the market.
A petroleum ministry official declined to comment on whether India would resume purchases from Iran. Iranian crude accounted for about 10 per cent of India’s imports before US sanctions halted flows. Most of the Iranian volumes currently go to China.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Washington may allow Iranian oil already on the water to be sold freely, potentially opening the door for buyers including India.
