The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its U.S. regular gasoline retail price projections for 2026 and 2027 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.
According to this STEO, the EIA now sees the gasoline price averaging $2.91 per gallon in 2026 and $2.93 per gallon in 2027. In its previous STEO, which was released in January, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price would average $2.92 per gallon this year and $2.95 per gallon next year.
Both STEOs showed that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price came in at $3.10 per gallon in 2025.
A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will average $2.88 per gallon in the first quarter of this year, $3.04 per gallon in the second quarter, $2.97 per gallon in the third quarter, $2.76 per gallon in the fourth quarter, $2.79 per gallon in the first quarter of next year, $3.05 per gallon in the second quarter, $3.04 per gallon in the third quarter, and $2.82 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2027.
In a blog posted on the GasBuddy website on Monday, GasBuddy noted that the U.S. average price of gasoline had risen 2.6 cents over the last week, and pointed out that it stood at $2.84 per gallon, according to its data “compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country”.
“The national average is up 4.9 cents from a month ago and is 24.5 cents per gallon lower than a year ago,” GasBuddy highlighted in the blog post.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, stated in that blog that “the national average price of gasoline continues to grind higher”, adding that “while the pace of increases remains modest for now, upward momentum could accelerate in the coming weeks as refinery maintenance intensifies and the broader transition to summer gasoline begins”.
“However, supply side dynamics could temper that seasonal pressure. If OPEC+ proceeds with resuming production increases following its first quarter pause, additional barrels could cap crude oil’s upside and limit the magnitude of the spring rally at the pump,” he continued.
“That said, geopolitical tensions – particularly between the U.S. and Iran – remain an unpredictable variable, injecting risk into the outlook and leaving prices vulnerable to sudden shifts,” De Haan warned.
According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. is $2.929 per gallon, as of February 19.
Yesterday’s average was $2.923 per gallon, the week ago average was $2.944 per gallon, the month ago average was $2.825 per gallon, and the year ago average was $3.164 per gallon, the AAA Fuel Prices site showed.
The highest recorded average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. was seen on June 14, 2022, at $5.016 per gallon, the site pointed out.
The EIA’s latest gasoline fuel update, which was released on February 18, showed that the average U.S. regular gasoline price has increased from $2.867 per gallon on February 2, to $2.902 per gallon on February 9, and $2.924 per gallon on February 16. Although the February 16 price was $0.022 higher than the prior week, it was $0.224 lower than the year ago price and $0.345 lower than the price two years ago, the fuel update outlined.
According to this fuel update, which pegged the price of regular gasoline at $3.05 per gallon in November 2025, 47 percent of that total went towards crude oil costs, 20 percent went towards distribution and marketing costs, 17 percent went towards taxes, and 16 percent went towards refining costs.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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