US Consumer Sentiment and the Fed in Focus
US futures saw modest gains during the Asian session on February 24. The Dow Jones E-mini climbed 66 points, while the Nasdaq 100 E-mini and the S&P 500 E-mini advanced 112 points and 19 points, respectively.
Later in Tuesday’s session, US labor market and consumer confidence figures will influence expectations of a June Fed rate cut. Economists expect the CB Consumer Confidence Index to rise from 84.5 in January to 87.3 in February. A pickup in confidence could signal an upswing in consumer spending and demand-driven inflation.
However, ADP employment figures are likely to have more influence on sentiment. A weak reading would suggest looser labor market conditions. Rising unemployment would cool wage growth and consumer spending, dampening demand-driven inflation. A softer inflation outlook would support a more dovish Fed rate path.
Beyond the data, traders should closely monitor FOMC members’ insights into the US labor market, inflation, and monetary policy. Growing support for a June rate cut would boost demand for US stock futures.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June Fed cut rose from 53.5% on February 20 to 56.4% on February 23. Currently, markets expect two Fed rate cuts in 2026, with a year-end target rate of 3.00%-3.25%, which remains key to the bullish medium- to longer-term outlook for US stock futures.
Key Technical Levels for Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500
Despite the morning gains, the Dow Jones E-mini, the Nasdaq 100 E-mini, and the S&P 500 E-mini remained below their 50-day EMAs, while holding above their 200-day EMAs. The EMA positions indicated a bearish near-term but bullish longer-term outlook. While technicals supported a cautiously bearish near-term outlook, rate cut hopes aligned with the longer-term technicals and the bullish medium-term projection.
Near-term trends hinge on the incoming Trump’s tariff policies, US economic data, central bank rhetoric, and Middle East developments. Key levels to monitor include:
Dow Jones
Resistance: the 50-day EMA (49,060), the February 10 record high of 50,611, and then 51,000.
Support: 48,500.
