Donald Trump’s ambitions for the US to “drill, baby, drill” for more fossil fuels have ironically been hampered by the economic chaos unleashed by his own tariffs, but the US is still on track to increase oil and gas extraction, causing a surge in planet-heating emissions, a new analysis shows.
The US was already the world’s leading oil and gas power, producing more of the fossil fuels than any country in history during Joe Biden’s administration. But Trump has sought to escalate this further, declaring an “energy emergency” to open up more land and ocean for drilling and launching an unprecedented assault on environmental regulations in his first 100 days back in the White House.
This new political climate means that the expected amount of greenhouse gas emissions from active and planned projects in US oil and gas fields has jumped under Trump, after previously dropping under Biden, forecasts shared with the Guardian show.
Despite awarding more drilling leases than Trump in his first 100 days, Biden also pursued policies to combat the climate crisis that saw oil and gas companies revise down their production estimates. That situation has now reversed, threatening a pulse of new pollution that will further add to the fever of a planet already suffering from heatwaves, floods, droughts and other disasters accelerated by global heating.
“The uptick in embodied emissions from forecast US oil and gas production is worrying,” said Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy adviser at the International Institute for Sustainable Development, which tracks emissions projections from the lifetime of projects, based on data from research consultancy Rystad Energy. “The world can’t afford more climate chaos.”
Trump has already taken more than 140 initial actions to reverse environmental regulations and promote the use of fossil fuels, dismissing established climate science as a “giant hoax” and exhorting further drilling.
“We have more liquid gold under our feet than any nation on Earth, and by far, and now I fully authorize the most talented team ever assembled to go and get it,” the president told Congress in March. “It’s called drill, baby, drill.”
This unabashed support for fossil fuels has been warmly welcomed by the fossil fuel industry, which donated heavily to Trump’s campaign. While “drill, baby, drill” won’t fully be realized unless Trump manages to push through significant deregulation and tax cuts for the sector, the US will still move towards a record peak of 15m barrels of oil a day, up from about 13.5m barrels a day now, according to projections by Rystad.
“In his first 100 days, President Trump has kept his promise to ‘drill, baby, drill’,” said a White House spokesperson. “We’re achieving historic results at record speed and we’re just getting started.”
The International Energy Agency, which has forecast that global oil and gas demand will peak by 2030, has said that no new major fossil fuel projects can occur if the world is to stay within agreed temperature limits and avoid catastrophic climate impacts. Last year was the hottest, worldwide, ever recorded and governments are collectively failing to meet targets to avert escalating disasters.
Trump’s ambitions for more drilling in the US have been clouded, however, by his own economic policies. While oil and gas has been exempt from a barrage of tariffs imposed by Trump, the industry is smarting from tariffs placed on materials such as steel, which it needs for pipelines, and has been unnerved by fears of recession amid an increasingly erratic trade war.
The first 100 days of Trump’s administration have been the worst start of any presidency for the stock market since the 1970s, engulfing many fossil fuel firms that have seen their share prices slump.
The price of a barrel of American crude oil briefly dropped below $60, a threshold under which companies cannot operate profitably, before edging up slightly in recent weeks. Opec, the oil cartel, recently increased production at the urging of Trump, further putting downward pressure on the oil price.
This has stirred anger within an oil and gas sector that has otherwise cheered on Trump. “The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets. ‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry,” one executive told a survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Said another: “I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career.”
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The full impact of the tariffs have yet to be seen but industry expectations have been “completely shattered” by their imposition, according to Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad.
“Investments have been put on hold and the expectations of growth of economic activity have been slashed dramatically,” Galimberti said. “US production is not going to grow in the next five years the same way it has grown in the past five. Until really there is a settlement on the tariffs, there’s going to be a lot of volatility.”
While Rystad expects concerns over a recession to pass, and the price of oil to climb back to around $70 a barrel later this year, the outlook for renewable energy may be more difficult, with solar and wind projects facing potential cost increases of up to 30% due to the tariffs and attempts by Trump and Republicans in Congress to eliminate support for clean energy.
Trump has already halted approvals of new solar and wind projects on federal lands and waters and criticized what he calls “scam” subsidies for clean energy. Tariffs on solar panels from Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia have been ratcheted up to as much as 3,521%. “We don’t want windmills in this country,” the president said shortly after his inauguration in January. “We don’t want windmills. You know what else people don’t like? Those massive solar fields.”
While more than 90% of new power added to the US electricity grid this year is expected to be from solar, wind and batteries, the administration’s turn against renewables is already affecting planned projects that are overwhelmingly located in Republican rural and exurban districts.
Nearly $8bn in planned investments and 16 large-scale clean energy projects were shut, cancelled or downsized in the first three months of the year, according to E2, a nonpartisan business group. “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll,” said Michael Timberlake, a spokesperson for E2.
Economic disruptions from the fluctuating price of oil, as well the climate impacts from burning oil and other fossil fuels, can be alleviated if “governments and investors make smart choices”, said von Kursk. “Clean energy is more competitive than ever, eroding demand for fossil fuels.”
