The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals how major market participants are positioned in oil and gas futures. Published every Friday at 3:30pm ET, it’s the most important sentiment indicator for energy traders.
What is the CFTC COT Report?
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) requires all traders with positions above reporting thresholds to disclose their holdings. The aggregated data is published weekly in the Commitment of Traders report, breaking down open interest by trader category.
Key Trader Categories
Commercial Traders (Hedgers)
Oil producers (ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco) and consumers (airlines, refiners) who use futures to hedge physical exposure. When commercials are heavily short, they expect lower prices — and they know the physical market better than anyone.
Managed Money (Hedge Funds)
Speculative traders including commodity trading advisors (CTAs), hedge funds, and systematic funds. Net managed money positioning is the most-watched figure — extreme long positioning often precedes selloffs, and extreme shorts precede rallies.
Swap Dealers
Banks and financial institutions that intermediate between hedgers and speculators. Their positioning reflects the aggregate demand for hedging services.
How to Read COT Data for Oil
- Net long (managed money): Hedge funds expect higher prices. Extreme readings above 400K contracts are historically bearish (crowded trade).
- Net short (managed money): Hedge funds expect lower prices. Extreme shorts below -50K contracts often mark bottoms.
- Commercial net position: Producers hedging more aggressively = they expect lower prices. Reduced hedging = they expect higher prices.
- Open interest changes: Rising open interest + rising prices = strong trend. Falling open interest + rising prices = weak rally.
Key Oil COT Contracts
- WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX) — the most liquid oil futures contract globally
- Brent Crude Oil (ICE) — the international benchmark, separate COT report
- Natural Gas (NYMEX) — Henry Hub futures positioning
- RBOB Gasoline (NYMEX) — refined product positioning
- Heating Oil (NYMEX) — distillate market sentiment
Track CFTC Data on OilMarketCap
View the latest positioning data on our Oil Prices & Market Dashboard, updated every Friday after the CFTC release.