(Bloomberg) – OPEC+ agreed to resume oil production increases at a slightly accelerated pace, even as conflict sparked by U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran heightens risks to global crude flows.
Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will add 206,000 bpd in April, according to a statement following the group’s monthly meeting. The increase follows a first-quarter pause in planned supply hikes and is modestly larger than the 137,000-bpd increments introduced late last year.
The move comes as Middle East tensions have pushed oil prices higher, with Brent recently climbing to around $73/bbl amid concerns over potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — a key shipping route for roughly 20% of global crude and refined product flows.
While several OPEC+ members have limited ability to raise output further, Saudi Arabia and the UAE hold the bulk of the group’s spare capacity — estimated by the International Energy Agency at roughly 2.5 MMbpd combined. Some analysts caution that even this figure may be optimistic.
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE had already accelerated exports in recent weeks. However, sustained export growth would depend on conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic has slowed amid rising tensions.
OPEC+ has been restoring previously curtailed production in stages. Delegates said the group maintains flexibility in its schedule for returning more than 1 MMbpd of withheld supply, with the process potentially concluding by late 2026.
Before the recent escalation, markets had been bracing for a potential supply surplus, as rising production from the Americas was expected to outpace slowing demand growth. However, outages, sanctions-related disruptions, and geopolitical risks have tightened near-term balances.
The group is scheduled to meet again on April 5.
