Ambitious corporate fleet electrification targets could secure up to 57% of the EV sales EU carmakers need by 2030.
Raising the proposed fleet target to 69% and excluding plug in hybrids could drive nearly 2 million additional EV sales.
Stronger targets would support European manufacturing, with most corporate EVs already produced within the EU.
Brussels is considering legislation that could reshape Europe’s electric vehicle transition by targeting one of the market’s most influential buyers: large corporate fleets.
New analysis from Transport & Environment (T&E) finds that a strengthened EU fleets law could deliver 57% of the electric vehicle sales carmakers require to meet their 2030 EU CO2 targets. The proposed law aims to accelerate electrification of vehicles registered by large companies, a segment that plays a pivotal role in shaping second hand markets and consumer adoption.
Automakers have argued that weak demand threatens compliance with tightening emissions standards. T&E’s research suggests the opposite: ambitious fleet electrification rules could generate roughly 2 million additional EV sales by the end of the decade.
However, this outcome depends on lawmakers strengthening the current proposal.
Commission targets seen as insufficient
The European Commission proposal sets an average target of 45% electrification of new company car registrations. According to T&E, leaving the proposal unchanged would secure only 37% of the EV sales needed for manufacturers to meet EU CO2 requirements.
The organization assessed an alternative scenario aligned with the Commission’s own impact assessment: raising the fleet target to 69% and excluding plug in hybrids. Under this approach, major manufacturers would secure a significant share of their EV sales pipeline, including BMW at 72%, Volkswagen at 61%, and Volvo at 59%.
T&E argues that without stronger targets, the law risks entrenching slow adoption.
Large companies would be required to electrify faster than the overall car market in only six countries: Germany, Italy, Austria, Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. In Germany, fleet EV adoption would sit just five percentage points above expected market levels. In the remaining 21 member states, corporate fleets would lag behind or merely match broader market trends.
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Industry competitiveness and policy stakes
Sofie Grande y Rodriguez, Clean Fleets Manager at T&E, said: “Designing a fleets law that doesn’t require large companies to lead is like building a house that no one will ever live in. Lawmakers have two options. Either they increase the EV targets and drop PHEVs, or they fail at turning this law into the powerful demand-driving instrument it should be. It’s in the European car industry’s interests that they get this done right.”
Evidence from national policy reforms suggests fiscal measures can rapidly shift fleet purchasing behavior. Belgium reformed company car taxation in 2021 by phasing out depreciation write offs for internal combustion vehicles and plug in hybrids. EVs accounted for 54% of corporate registrations by 2025. In Germany, where comparable tax reforms were not introduced, EVs represented just 19% of the corporate market.
Manufacturing and jobs implications
Ambitious fleet targets could also strengthen Europe’s automotive industrial base. In 2025, 74% of new corporate EVs registered in the EU were produced domestically, a share expected to rise if financial incentives are limited to EU built vehicles.
Under a 69% EV only fleet target, European manufacturers could sell up to 1.9 million additional EVs in 2030. That volume approaches four times the annual output of Volkswagen’s Wolfsburg plant across all powertrains. Maintaining the current 45% target would limit the boost to roughly 1.2 million additional EU built EVs.
The definition of “Made in EU” will be formalized in the forthcoming Industrial Accelerator Act, which is expected to shape eligibility for incentives and industrial support.
Grande y Rodriguez added: “The EU fleets law is Europe’s secret weapon to turbo charge domestic car production. With made-in-EU EVs already being the favourite choice for corporate buyers when going electric, fleet targets will support European car manufacturers and jobs.”
What executives and investors should watch
For corporate leaders and investors, the fleets law represents more than a transport policy. It is a demand creation mechanism with implications for compliance costs, supply chain investment, and industrial competitiveness.
If strengthened, the regulation could stabilize EV demand, support domestic production, and accelerate emissions reductions across Europe’s largest vehicle segment. If diluted, the EU risks slower decarbonization and prolonged uncertainty for automakers navigating the transition.
As negotiations continue, the fleets law stands at the intersection of climate policy, industrial strategy, and market demand, with consequences that will extend far beyond Europe’s corporate parking lots.
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