In a U.S. natural gas focused EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Friday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, warned of “faltering demand” heading into the President’s Day holiday weekend.
“The March contract tested as high as $3.316 yesterday before selling off after a bearish EIA [U.S. Energy Information Administration] storage surprise, and ahead of deteriorating heating demand into President’s Day holiday weekend and an 11 billion cubic foot per day drop into next Wednesday,” Rubin said in Friday’s report.
“The threat of cold air in Western Canada and the Pacific Northwest moving into the U.S. remains a primary source of support,” he added.
“If the market returns from the holiday weekend without this threat materializing, however, sub-$3.00 per million British thermal units may be in play as the year over year storage deficit flips to a 170 billion cubic foot surplus by late February,” he continued.
In the report, Rubin went on to state that “steep storage refill demand east of the Rockies and loose supply/demand fundamentals during recent Marches may offer some medium-term support”.
He added, however, that “storage exiting March near 1,800 billion cubic feet, with gathering production tailwinds and decelerating year over year LNG growth into mid to late 2026, suggest a bearish outlook for NYMEX gas futures”.
In its latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on February 12 and included data for the week ending February 6, the EIA revealed that, according to its estimates, working gas in storage was 2,214 billion cubic feet as of February 6.
“This represents a net decrease of 249 billion cubic feet from the previous week,” the EIA highlighted in the report.
“Stocks were 97 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 130 billion cubic feet below the five-year average of 2,344 billion cubic feet. At 2,214 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” it added.
In the EBW report, Rubin said the “249 billion cubic foot EIA report matched the 17th-largest weekly EIA storage pull in history – and still came in close to 1.3 billion cubic feet per day looser than analyst consensus estimates”.
“The market rebalancing after Winter Storm Fern follows a pattern of post-storm pipeline linepack decreases and industrial demand outages,” he added.
“Industrial demand outages are primarily located in the South Central, one of larger regional surprises in yesterday’s report. Both linepack and industrial outage factors, however, are harder to track quantitatively with available data sources – and often underweighted in analyst estimates,” he continued.
“The current 97 billion cubic foot U.S. storage deficit to year-ago values could quickly flip to a 170 billion cubic foot surplus within the next three weeks. The current 130 billion cubic foot storage deficit to five-year norms may be erased over the next two storage reports,” he went on to state.
In Friday’s report, EBW predicted a “watching early March weather” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and a “storage deficits offer support” trend over the next 30-45 days.
EBW states on its website that it provides independent expert analysis of natural gas, electricity, and crude oil markets. The company highlights on its site that it has teamed up with DTN, which it describes as “the global industry leader known for hazardous weather detection and prediction, forecast modeling, decision analytics, GIS and interactive mapping”.
Rubin is described on EBW’s website as “an expert in econometrics, statistics, microeconomics, and energy-related public policy”.
“He is instrumental in designing the algorithms used in our models, and in assessing the potential discrepancies between theoretical and practical market effects of models and historical results,” the EBW site goes on to state.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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