BP expects to book up to $5 billion in impairments for the fourth quarter, mostly related to its energy transition businesses, while oil trading was weak and gas trading averaged at the end of 2025.
The fourth-quarter results are expected to include post-tax adjusting items relating to impairments, including impairments within equity-accounted entities, in the range of $4-5 billion, primarily related to the transition businesses, BP said in a trading statement on Wednesday, ahead of the full Q4 results, which will be published on February 10, 2026.
“These charges are primarily attributable to the gas and low carbon energy segment and are excluded from underlying replacement cost profit,” BP said.
Upstream production is expected to be broadly flat in Q4 compared to the previous quarter, but the oil trading result is set to be weak, for a second consecutive quarter.
The refining margin across BP’s assets was slightly lower in the fourth quarter, at $15.2 per barrel, down from $15.8 a barrel in the third quarter of 2025.
The gas marketing and trading result is expected to be average, BP said.
But the supermajor’s net debt is expected in the range of $22 to 23 billion at the end of 2025, down from $26.1 billion at the end of the third quarter. This includes $3.5 billion in proceeds from divestments, bringing the full-year proceeds from asset sales to about $5.3 billion, compared to the previous guidance of above $4 billion.
For the third quarter, BP reported stronger-than-expected earnings in November, as higher output, field start-ups, and improved refining margins offset weaker oil prices and trading results.
Last week, the other UK-based supermajor, Shell, flagged weak chemicals and products business for Q4, expecting the division to swing to a loss, on the back of a lower chemicals margin compared to the previous quarter.
Refining, however, could get a boost as the indicative refining margin across Shell’s assets is expected to have been $14 per barrel for the fourth quarter, up from $12 per barrel for the third quarter.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
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