Norway ramped up its pipeline gas exports, Qatar raised its LNG supply, and the United States saw LNG exports hit a record high in October, just as demand in the northern hemisphere started to grow with the fall in temperatures.
Global gas demand jumped by 12 bcm in October compared to September, according to the latest data by the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) out on Thursday. Compared to October last year, gas demand in the 55 countries self-reporting data to JODI rose by 5.1 bcm.
Combined gas demand in the EU and the UK increased by 10.1 bcm in October from September, while inventories remained unchanged, the JODI database showed.
As demand began its seasonal rise in October, LNG exports from Qatar went up by 0.71 bcm, Norway’s pipeline gas exports increased by 2.1 bcm and total Norwegian gas exports, including LNG, increased by 2.6 bcm, the data showed.
Comforted by sufficient supply, European benchmark natural gas prices have eased in recent weeks to the lowest in more than a year and a half.
In the short term, analysts expect well-supplied and even oversupplied LNG markets amid lower Chinese demand while new supply comes online.
The U.S. is set to export 14.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG this year, up by 25% from 2024, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) earlier this month. With new projects ramping up, the EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to jump to an average of 16.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2026.
At the same time, China’s LNG imports have been falling over the past year as domestic production and pipeline imports increase.
Despite warnings of a near-term global LNG glut, top exporters in the Middle East, including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), see strong demand going forward and flag insufficient investment in supply in the medium to long term.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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