Oil posted a fourth monthly loss as traders looked ahead to an OPEC+ meeting this weekend and assessed how the potential of easing geopolitical tensions from Kyiv to Caracas may impact an oversupplied market.
West Texas Intermediate edged down to settle below $59 a barrel, after earlier gaining as much as 1.7%, to close out the longest streak of monthly drops since March 2023. The commodity slid to intra-day lows minutes before settlement as The New York Times reported that US President Donald Trump and Venezuelan counterpart Nicolás Maduro discussed a potential meeting in a call last week. A de-escalation between the Trump administration and the oil-rich South American country would sap a major risk premium out of oil prices.
The late-day dip capped off a choppy trading session, marked by thin holiday volumes and an hours-long outage on Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s trading platform that roiled global markets. The halt — which the company said was a result of a cooling issue in a data center — also impacted gasoline and diesel futures that are due to expire on Friday.
OPEC+ nations are set to meet virtually on Sunday and will probably stick with a plan to pause output increases in early 2026, delegates said. With that decision locked in, a key focus may be a long-term review of members’ capacity.
US oil has fallen 18% this year, with prices hurt by expectations for a global glut after OPEC+ restarted capacity, while drillers outside the alliance also added supplies.
On Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that US President Donald Trump’s proposals for ending Moscow’s war could be the basis for future agreements and expressed an openness to talks, though sticking points that led to stalemates in previous rounds remain. US presidential envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Moscow next week.
The peace talks have hit other hurdles, including an embezzlement scandal involving several of Kyiv’s leading public figures. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday said the nation’s lead negotiator in peace talks, Andriy Yermak, resigned after becoming ensnared in the on-going corruption probe.
An end to the conflict would have significant ramifications for the oil market. Russia is one of the world’s leading producers and its flows are subject to heavy Western sanctions. Any easing of curbs following a deal could unleash restricted supplies to buyers such as China, India and Turkey.
“It may take some time for a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal to go through as Russia may look to store up some barrels instead of rushing to sell them,” said Mukesh Sahdev, the founder and chief executive officer of XAnalysts Pty, an energy market analysis firm. That could make prompt prices slightly bullish, before it gets bearish, he said.
Prices:
WTI for January delivery fell 0.2% to settle at $58.55 a barrel in New York
Brent for February edged down 0.8% to settle at $62.38 a barrel
The January contract expires Friday
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