Exxon Mobil has finally lifted force majeure on the long-stalled Rovuma LNG project in northern Mozambique, clearing the first real procedural hurdle the $30-billion development has seen in years. The company halted activity back in 2021 after escalating violence in Cabo Delgado forced both Exxon and TotalEnergies to abandon their sites. Total’s adjacent Mozambique LNG project declared force majeure first; Exxon followed soon after. The two projects share infrastructure, which meant neither could realistically move without the other.
An Exxon spokesperson said the company is now working with its partners and Mozambique’s government to secure operations, with a final investment decision still penciled in for 2026 and first LNG aimed at 2030. That’s the company line: cautiously optimistic, but not blind to the reality that nothing has fundamentally changed about Cabo Delgado except the industry’s desire to get moving again.
The timing is delicate. TotalEnergies lifted its own force majeure only days ago—right as a European NGO filed war-crimes allegations in France, accusing the company of indirectly supporting Mozambican military units accused of torture and killings near the project site in 2021. Total has denied knowledge of any such events, but the revived legal fight underscores how fragile the political and security backdrop remains.
For Exxon, however, Rovuma’s prospects are tied less to headlines and more to LNG math. A massive supply wave is coming in 2026–2028 from Qatar and the U.S. Gulf Coast. If Rovuma misses its window, it risks entering an already crowded market with higher costs and lower leverage. Mozambique LNG is supposed to be Africa’s next big export hub; investors won’t tolerate endless drift.
Yet security is still the swing factor. Insurgent attacks in northern Mozambique have flared again, and several regional security forces that once helped contain the violence have stepped back. Analysts warn that no amount of corporate caution can paper over an unstable operating environment.
Still, lifting force majeure signals that Exxon and its partners believe the project has a path forward. Maybe that path is narrow. Maybe it’s slow. But it’s real. In a global LNG market that’s racing to lock down future volumes, nobody wants to be the last one to the starting line.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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