There will be enough natural gas for the UK during the winter season, the country’s National Energy System Operator said in a report ahead of peak energy demand season. National Gas, the UK’s top supplier of the energy commodity, also sees no cause for concern for the coming winter, Reuters reported, citing both organizations.
Domestic natural gas production is on the decline as energy self-sufficiency falls down the priority list to be replaced by emissions reduction and the decarbonization of the economy, but this should not be a problem, NESO and National Gas said. NESO warned that electricity prices this winter would be heavily influenced by gas market developments.
“Only a rare combination of events – such as a very cold UK winter coinciding with a major supply disruption, would pose a material risk to our gas or electricity systems,” Glenn Bryn-Jacobsen, director of Energy Systems & Resilience at National Gas, said in the organization’s new report.
The UK imports natural gas from Norway via pipeline and from other suppliers as LNG. This winter, National Gas forecasts 6% lower domestic gas supply and 7% higher imports of liquefied gas, the Financial Times reported. At the same time, National Gas has predicted lower consumption as well, down 3%, thanks to higher expected generation from wind and solar.
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National Gas warned, however, that there will be a certain degree of tightness on the domestic gas market this winter. “Our margins for winter 2025/2026 are tighter than we have seen in the last four years,” the company said in its winter gas outlook, adding that “This is largely due to the well-documented continued decline in supplies from the UK Continental Shelf.”
This winter, some 33% of the UK’s gas supply is expected to come from its own North Sea fields, with another 36% coming from Norway and 24% coming from global LNG suppliers.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
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