Prices are being underpinned by multiple supply-side disruptions. A key catalyst was the failure to restart oil exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region, halting an expected 230,000 barrels per day (bpd) of flows through Turkey. Markets had previously sold off on anticipation of resumed flows but reversed course after producers demanded debt repayment guarantees before any agreement could proceed.
Additional short-term bullish sentiment came from Chevron’s curtailed oil exports from Venezuela due to U.S. permit complications, and uncertainty around possible new EU sanctions on Russian oil exports. Analysts say these developments are offsetting broader expectations for an oversupplied market in the coming months, especially as OPEC+ production edges higher and global demand expectations soften.
API data shows crude draw, but traders await official numbers
Adding to the bullish undertone, preliminary data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed U.S. crude stocks declined by 3.82 million barrels in the week ended September 19. Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.05 million barrels, while distillate stocks increased by 518,000 barrels.
The official U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, due later Wednesday, is forecast to show stock builds in crude and gasoline, and a draw in distillates, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.
Distillates remain a focal point. Analysts note that low inventories in OECD economies and concerns over Russian infrastructure—exacerbated by Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian fuel depots in Bryansk and Samara—could tighten global diesel supply.
Geopolitical rhetoric sharpens as market eyes Russia risk premium
Geopolitical headlines continue to stir the oil market. President Trump’s remarks supporting Ukraine’s full territorial recovery reflect a potential policy tilt that may reinforce Western resolve against Russian energy exports. Though symbolic, such shifts heighten the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, particularly with EU nations mulling stronger Russian sanctions.
