China’s crude imports from Russia fell in August compared with a year earlier, representing the first annual decline in months, according to official Chinese customs data cited by South China Morning Post. However, there is nuance in the data detail, with shipping trackers via S&P Global showing seaborne flows from Russia to China actually rising compared with July.
Figures reported by the SCMP, citing Chinese customs, show imports from Russia were down around 15% year-on-year in August. The drop came as China boosted purchases from other suppliers, including Brazil and Indonesia, leaving Russia’s share of the market slightly reduced. Analysts noted that refiners have been diversifying their feedstock mix in response to shifting price dynamics and seasonal demand.
Earlier in September, data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea indicated that seaborne shipments of Russian crude to China increased by about 12% month-on-month in August.
Overall, China’s crude oil imports rose by nearly 5% in August compared with July, reaching 49.5 million tonnes, according to Anadolu Agency. On a year-on-year basis, total imports edged just 0.8% higher, but the figures confirm that China remains the world’s largest oil importer at a time when domestic product demand is slowing.
The divergence in figures reflects how refiners have adjusted buying patterns. Year-on-year volumes are weaker because last August, China was taking advantage of steep Russian discounts after sanctions tightened. Month-on-month, however, purchases picked up as Chinese refiners secured cargoes ahead of autumn maintenance and in response to narrower arbitrage from other suppliers.
For Moscow, the customs dip is notable from a YoY perspective given that China, along with India, has been the anchor buyer of Russian crude since Western sanctions redirected trade flows in 2022. Whether August proves to be a one-off fluctuation or an early sign of demand rebalancing will depend on how Chinese refiners respond to discounted barrels heading into the autumn refinery maintenance season.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
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