In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team late Monday, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they are forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will be up by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending August 8.
“This follows a 3.0 million barrel draw in the prior week, with the crude balance realizing tighter than our expectations,” the strategists said in the report.
“For this week’s crude balance, from refineries, we model a minimal reduction in crude runs. Among net imports, we model a small increase, with exports (+0.3 million barrels per day) and imports (+0.6 million barrels per day) up on a nominal basis,” they added.
Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in this week’s crude balance, the Macquarie strategists warned in the report.
They went on to state that, “from implied domestic supply (prod.+adj.+transfers)”, they “look for an increase (+0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal basis this week”.
“Rounding out the picture, we anticipate no change in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] stocks this week,” the strategists said.
The strategists also noted in the report that, “among products”, they “look for builds in distillate (+3.8 million barrels) and jet (+0.5 million barrels), with a draw in gasoline (-0.9 million barrels)”.
“We model implied demand for these three products at ~14.3 million barrels per day for the week ending August 8,” the strategists continued.
In its latest weekly petroleum status report at the time of writing, which was released on August 6 and included data for the week ending August 1, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the SPR, decreased by three million barrels from the week ending July 25 to the week ending August 1.
That EIA report showed that crude oil stocks, not including the SPR, stood at 423.7 million barrels on August 1, 426.7 million barrels on July 25, and 429.3 million barrels on August 2, 2024. Crude oil in the SPR stood at 403.0 million barrels on August 1, 402.7 million barrels on July 25, and 375.8 million barrels on August 2, 2024, the EIA report revealed.
Total petroleum stocks – including crude oil, total motor gasoline, fuel ethanol, kerosene type jet fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils – stood at 1.662 billion barrels on August 1, the EIA report highlighted. Total petroleum stocks were up 2.3 million barrels week on week and down 3.3 million barrels year on year, the EIA report showed.
In an oil and gas report sent to Rigzone by the Macquarie team on August 4, Macquarie strategists, including Walt Chancellor, revealed that they were forecasting that U.S. crude inventories would be up by 1.3 million barrels for the week ending August 1.
“This follows a 7.7 million barrel build in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing looser than our expectations,” the strategists said in that report.
The EIA’s next weekly petroleum status report is scheduled to be released on August 13. It will include data for the week ending August 8.
In a market analysis sent to Rigzone on Tuesday, Maria Agustina Patti, Financial Markets Strategist Consultant to Exness, said, “looking forward, traders could turn to new data releases to gauge demand levels”.
“API [American Petroleum Institute] and EIA crude inventory levels could affect the direction of the market while the market awaits the result of the U.S.-Russia peace talks,” Patti added in that analysis.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report sent to Rigzone by the SEB team on Monday, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at the company, highlighted that U.S. President Donald Trump has invited Russian President Vladimir Putin to Alaska on August 15 to discuss Ukraine.
To contact the author, email andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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