Crude stayed range-bound this week, with prices stuck between weak demand signals and pockets of supply support. While inventories gave bulls a reason to lean in, trade uncertainty and underwhelming sanctions action kept a lid on any breakout.
Russian Sanctions: All Optics, No Impact
The EU dropped another round of sanctions on Russia, targeting refined products made from Russian crude in third countries. The market barely blinked. Enforcement looks flimsy, and traders don’t expect flows to dry up. Moscow’s oil is still moving, and desks aren’t pricing in a supply crunch.
Add to that fresh talk from the U.S. about possible direct sanctions on Russian crude exports. That’s a longer-term story—nothing actionable for now. The market is treating it as background noise.
Iran Back in the Mix, But No Immediate Risk
Iran’s nuclear talks with Europe restarted in Istanbul. Traders flagged it, but it’s not moving barrels yet. If talks collapse, we could see tighter enforcement on Iranian exports. Until that happens, this is just headline risk—not a supply driver.
Tariff Headlines Keep Buyers on the Sidelines
The big drag this week was trade tension. The U.S. is threatening 30% tariffs on EU goods if no deal gets done by August 1. Brussels is prepping a response, and that has demand desks nervous. No one wants to get long crude if global trade slows.
MUFG called out growing urgency in negotiations, and even with a softer dollar, crude couldn’t…
Crude stayed range-bound this week, with prices stuck between weak demand signals and pockets of supply support. While inventories gave bulls a reason to lean in, trade uncertainty and underwhelming sanctions action kept a lid on any breakout.
Russian Sanctions: All Optics, No Impact
The EU dropped another round of sanctions on Russia, targeting refined products made from Russian crude in third countries. The market barely blinked. Enforcement looks flimsy, and traders don’t expect flows to dry up. Moscow’s oil is still moving, and desks aren’t pricing in a supply crunch.
Add to that fresh talk from the U.S. about possible direct sanctions on Russian crude exports. That’s a longer-term story—nothing actionable for now. The market is treating it as background noise.
Iran Back in the Mix, But No Immediate Risk
Iran’s nuclear talks with Europe restarted in Istanbul. Traders flagged it, but it’s not moving barrels yet. If talks collapse, we could see tighter enforcement on Iranian exports. Until that happens, this is just headline risk—not a supply driver.
Tariff Headlines Keep Buyers on the Sidelines
The big drag this week was trade tension. The U.S. is threatening 30% tariffs on EU goods if no deal gets done by August 1. Brussels is prepping a response, and that has demand desks nervous. No one wants to get long crude if global trade slows.
MUFG called out growing urgency in negotiations, and even with a softer dollar, crude couldn’t get much traction. Traders are watching August 1 closely—no deal means another leg lower for demand expectations.
EIA Draw Turns the Tide, Temporarily
The weekly EIA report delivered a surprise 3.2 million barrel draw—double what was expected. That helped crude find a floor. Gasoline stocks also fell, though distillates climbed. The draw gave bulls a reason to hold risk, but the move didn’t carry far.
Inventory prints have been erratic. Traders need to see this trend continue through peak demand season for it to matter. One week doesn’t flip the tape.
Russia’s Gasoline Cuts and Trade Optimism Lift Late-Week Sentiment
Russia announced it would cut gasoline exports to all but a few allies. It’s not crude, but it’s enough to tighten refined product markets. That gave crude a lift late in the week—especially with a U.S.-EU trade deal looking more likely.
Diplomats said a 15% baseline tariff with some exemptions is on the table. If that deal sticks, crude demand could get a boost. For now, the market’s leaning hopeful, but still trading cautiously.
Supply Disruptions Don’t Move the Needle
There were some one-off issues. Azeri BTC loadings paused at Ceyhan due to contamination, and Russia briefly halted exports from the Black Sea. Both cleared up quickly. Traders flagged the headlines but didn’t react—nothing major was taken off the water.
Chevron got U.S. approval to restart limited production in Venezuela. That knocked prices down mid-session, but the move reversed once it was clear this was a one-off. The market doesn’t expect broad re-entry into Venezuela anytime soon.
Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures
Trend Indicator Analysis
The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, a trade through $62.69 will shift momentum to the downside. Despite the steep sell-off and the potentially bearish closing price reversal top the week-ending June 20, the market has not followed through to the downside, suggesting the presence of buyers.
Holding above the 52-week moving average at $64.36 indicates buyers are defending against another plunge. Additionally, the ability to sustain a move over the long-term pivot at $65.37 will signal the buying is getting stronger.
There are two other pivots to note. The April bottom at $51.18 and the June top at $77.09 has formed a pivot at $64.13 that has acted as support the past four weeks.
Additionally, the short-term range is $77.09 to $62.69. If there is a breakout to the upside then its pivot at $69.89 will become the initial upside target.
Essentially, bullish traders are looking for the 52-week moving average to hold as support and for a sustained breakout over $66.13. Bearish traders want to see a complete breakdown under the 52-week moving average. This would open the door for a further decline below $60.00.
Weekly Technical Forecast
The direction of the Weekly Light Crude Oil Futures market the week ending August 1 is likely to be determined by trader reaction to $65.37 and $64.13. The pivotal indicator will be the 52-week moving average, currently at $64.36.
Bullish Scenario
A sustained move over $65.37 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum, we could see a near-term rally into a minor pivot at $69.89. The major upside target is the resistance zone at $77.09 to $81.60.
Bearish Scenario
A sustained move under $64.13 will indicate the return of sellers. The initial break should drive prices into $62.69. This is the potential trigger point that could accelerate the selling into $52.00 to $51.18.
Oil Prices Forecast: Leaning Bullish, But Still Range-Bound
Crude goes into next week with a slight bullish bias. The inventory draw and possible trade breakthrough offer some upside. Russia’s export moves are also keeping product markets supported.
That said, demand risk from tariffs—and lack of a firm deal—still caps the upside. Unless the next EIA report confirms another draw or we get a signed U.S.-EU deal, this market stays stuck.
Technically, the market is expected to open the new week on a bullish note, above the long-term 52-week moving average at $64.37. Overcoming and sustaining the rally over the long-term pivot at $65.37 will reaffirm the developing uptrend.
A sudden upside spike in prices could trigger a surge into the short-term pivot at $69.89. On the downside, a break under the 52-week moving average will be a sign of weakness.
