Traders eye EU sanctions but remain skeptical
The market is digesting the EU’s 18th sanctions package against Russia, which includes a lower G7 price cap of $47.60 on Russian crude and crackdowns on shadow fleet tankers. But traders aren’t buying into the idea that this will materially disrupt supply. Russian barrels are still flowing, and the latest measures may be more political posture than practical disruption. UBS and Commerzbank analysts echoed that skepticism, with most market participants waiting to see if the U.S. follows through on threatened sanctions against buyers of Russian crude.
Drone strikes in Iraq support near-term pricing
More pressing for near-term supply concerns were this week’s drone attacks on oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan. Output has been slashed from 280,000 bpd to around 130,000 bpd. That squeeze helped push WTI up by $1 on Thursday. While Baghdad has since confirmed plans to resume pipeline exports to Turkey—halted for two years—the geopolitical risk premium hasn’t fully unwound.
Technical ceiling capped at $68.34, with upside potential to $69.89
Technically, crude is continuing to consolidate above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages—now stacked at $63.00 and $64.07 respectively. The price action since the sharp selloff from $77.09 on June 25 has been working off some of the excess froth. The $64–$68 range is getting increasingly defined, with $69.89 as the next logical resistance level if bulls can force a close above $68.34. On the downside, $64.11 and $62.69 offer firm support.
Outlook: Cautiously bullish while $64 holds
More likely than not, the market wants to move higher—but it’s lacking a strong enough catalyst to break cleanly out of this consolidation zone. Traders are leaning on geopolitical headlines and potential U.S. sanctions to provide that next spark. Until then, price looks comfortable chopping in this range. That being said, with a solid floor under $64 and buyers showing up on dips, we’d look at pullbacks as potential buying opportunities.
We’ll see how that plays out, but for now, the near-term outlook leans cautiously bullish.
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