(Investing) – Brent crude oil prices could hit $110 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Goldman Sachs analysts have forecast, while HSBC analysts see prices topping above $80.
Prices for Brent could average around $95 in the fourth quarter of 2025, Goldman Sachs said in a note dated June 22.
Their assumptions included oil flows through the critical waterway halving for a month and remaining down by 10% for the following 11 months.
Oil prices on Monday jumped to their highest since January after Washington joined Israel over the weekend in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Prediction markets, despite limited liquidity, reflect a 52% probability of Iran closing the strait this year, Goldman said, citing data from Polymarket. About a fifth of the world’s oil consumption passes through it.
“While the events in the Middle East remain fluid, we think that the economic incentives, including for the U.S. and China, to try to prevent a sustained and very large disruption of the Strait of Hormuz would be strong,” Goldman Sachs said.
HSBC in a note on Monday said that oil prices are set to rise on the higher probability of a closure, or other Iranian retaliatory actions following U.S. military strikes against Iran’s nuclear sites.
If there is no disruption, prices should trend down by the fourth quarter as OPEC+ adds supply and demand drops, HSBC analysts wrote.
They forecast Brent at $67 in second and third quarter and at $65 from fourth quarter onwards, but sees upside risks.
