(Investing) – Israel’s attack on Iran is unlikely to cause a major disruption to oil supply, analysts at two major banks said, but a worst-case scenario involving blockades in the Strait of Hormuz could push prices above $100 per barrel, Goldman Sachs said.
Oil prices climbed nearly 9% after Israel launched widescale strikes against Iran targeting nuclear facilities and missile factories, with benchmark futures trading near $74.74 per barrel. [O/R]
Goldman Sachs has incorporated a higher geopolitical risk premium into its adjusted summer 2025 oil price outlook, but “we still assume no disruptions to oil supply in the Middle East,” the bank said in a note Friday.
The bank continues to forecast “that strong supply growth outside U.S. shale will reduce Brent and WTI oil prices to $59/55 in 2025Q4 and $56/52 in 2026.”
Analysts at Citi also said that supply disruptions should be limited, adding that while heightened geopolitical tensions may linger, energy prices are unlikely to stay elevated for a sustained period.
Commerzbank (ETR:) said a further rise in oil prices would depend on supply risks in the event of an escalation, adding that prices are unlikely to fall below $70 for the time being.
OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais also said the escalation does not justify any immediate changes to supply, as current conditions remain stable.
WORST-CASE SCENARIO
One of the risk factors the market is considering is a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a sea corridor through which around a fifth of the world’s total oil consumption travels.
While an interruption is unlikely, the strait remains in focus because it may prevent core OPEC+ producers from deploying spare capacity, Goldman Sachs said, adding that in an extreme scenario involving an extended disruption, prices could even top $100 a barrel.
JP Morgan had, in a note dated Thursday, said certain worst-case scenarios in the Middle East could send oil to $120–130 a barrel.
